Who can form a government?
Under MMP a government needs parties holding a majority of seats to support it. Pick the parties and see if they get there.
Build a coalition
Tick parties to add their seats. Pick a common combination to start.
No result yet, so these seats are a projection from the final poll average, assuming Te Pāti Māori keeps its six Māori electorates and ACT keeps Epsom, as in 2023. It is a calculation, not a forecast.
| Combination | Seats | Majority? |
|---|---|---|
| National, ACT and NZ First (the parties in the 2023–26 Government) | 59 of 125 | No, 4 short |
| Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori | 58 of 125 | No, 5 short |
| National and ACT | 47 of 125 | No, 16 short |
| Labour and Greens | 52 of 125 | No, 11 short |
| National and NZ First | 46 of 125 | No, 17 short |
| National and Labour | 68 of 125 | Yes, 5 to spare |
What the parties have said
NZ First says it has ruled out working with Labour (see our NZ First summary and its sources). Opportunity has set out five bottom lines it would require in return for its support. Parties can also support a government without joining it, through confidence and supply agreements, so a majority does not have to mean a formal coalition.
The coalition talks
Talks start once the results are in. This timeline is updated as parties announce agreements.
- 7 November: election day; preliminary results from 7pm.
- 27 November 2026: official result declared, including special votes.
- 3 December: latest date for the writ to be returned.
- Then: Parliament must meet within six weeks of the writ’s return.
How these seats are worked out: see the overhang explained. Before results, the projection carries over only the 2023 electorates that decide whether a small party gets in; boundaries changed in 2025, so it is a rough guide.
Results: Electoral Commission preliminary and official results. Seats calculated by NZ Business Alliance with the Sainte-Laguë method. Poll data: Wikipedia, Opinion polling for the 2026 New Zealand general election (CC BY-SA 4.0). NZ Business Alliance is non-partisan and does not endorse any party.