Election 2026Coalition in 3D
How the next government could fit together
Neither bloc reaches 63 on its own: National, ACT and NZ First have 59, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori 58. Opportunity’s 8 seats would put either side over the line.
Your browser could not start the 3D view. Every number is in the panel alongside and the tables below.
The new Parliament
125 seats
Pick a combination. A government needs 63 of the 125 seats.
Reading the chamber
Every block is a seat
Coloured by party: 125 seats in all, the usual 120 plus 5 overhang. Hover a seat to see whether it is an electorate or list seat.
Government on the Speaker’s right
As in the real debating chamber, the government sits on the Speaker’s right and the opposition faces it. Parties giving confidence and supply sit next to the government side, tagged C&S.
The line of light is the majority
Seats fill from the government front bench round the back of the chamber. Reach the line at the back and you have the 63 seats needed to govern.
Gold rings are overhang seats
Seats a party keeps because it won more electorates than its party vote is worth. Each one makes Parliament bigger and raises the bar for a majority.
Every combination, in seats
Projected from the final poll average (polls from 10 October to 26 October), with Te Pāti Māori keeping six Māori electorates and ACT holding Epsom. A calculation, not a forecast.
| Combination | In government | Confidence and supply | Seats | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National, ACT and NZ First | National, ACT and NZ First | – | 59 of 125 | 4 short |
| National-led, backed by Opportunity | National, ACT and NZ First | Opportunity | 67 of 125 | Majority, 4 to spare |
| Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori | Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori | – | 58 of 125 | 5 short |
| Labour-led, backed by Opportunity | Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori | Opportunity | 66 of 125 | Majority, 3 to spare |
| National and Labour | National and Labour | – | 68 of 125 | Majority, 5 to spare |
Neither bloc reaches 63 on its own: National, ACT and NZ First have 59, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori 58. Opportunity’s 8 seats would put either side over the line. Opportunity has not said which side it would support, so it appears in both directions here.
The overhang raises the bar
On the final polls Te Pāti Māori’s party vote is worth about one seat, but in 2023 it won six Māori electorates. Each electorate it holds beyond its share adds a seat to Parliament, and every two extra seats push the majority up by one. The other parties’ seats do not change, so a bigger House makes a majority harder to reach for everyone else.
| Māori electorates won by Te Pāti Māori | Parliament | Majority | National, ACT, NZ First | Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 120 | 61 | 59 | 53 | 8 |
| 1 | 120 | 61 | 59 | 53 | 8 |
| 2 | 121 (+1) | 61 | 59 | 54 | 8 |
| 3 | 122 (+2) | 62 | 59 | 55 | 8 |
| 4 | 123 (+3) | 62 | 59 | 56 | 8 |
| 5 | 124 (+4) | 63 | 59 | 57 | 8 |
| 6 | 125 (+5) | 63 | 59 | 58 | 8 |
| 7 | 126 (+6) | 64 | 59 | 59 | 8 |
Same final poll average in every row; only the number of Māori electorates changes. The 3D view has a control for this in the overhang panel.
What the parties have said
NZ First says it has ruled out working with Labour (see our NZ First summary and its sources). Opportunity has set out five bottom lines it would require in return for its support, without naming a side. Parties can support a government without joining it, through confidence and supply, so a majority does not have to mean a formal coalition.
Questions people ask
How many seats are needed to form a government in New Zealand in 2026?
A majority of the House: half the seats plus one. With 120 seats that is 61, and overhang seats raise it. On the final poll average, with Te Pāti Māori keeping six Māori electorates on about 1.2% of the party vote, Parliament would have 125 seats and a government would need 63.
Can either side govern on its own?
Neither bloc reaches 63 on its own: National, ACT and NZ First have 59, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori 58. Opportunity’s 8 seats would put either side over the line.
What is confidence and supply?
An agreement in which a party outside the government promises to vote for it on confidence motions and the Budget (supply), usually in return for policy commitments, while keeping its own vote on everything else. The Greens supported the Labour–NZ First coalition this way from 2017.
What is an overhang seat?
When a party wins more electorates than its share of the party vote entitles it to, it keeps them all and Parliament grows by the difference. In 2023 Te Pāti Māori won 6 electorates on a party vote worth about 4 seats, so there were 2 overhang seats.
When will we know who forms the government?
Preliminary results arrive from 7pm on 7 November and the official result, including special votes, on 27 November 2026. Coalition talks usually run until after the official result, because special votes can move a seat or two.
The coalition builder, without the 3D → · The overhang explained → · Results →
Seats calculated by NZ Business Alliance with the Sainte-Laguë method the Electoral Commission uses, from the Electoral Commission results once they are published, and before that from polls listed on Wikipedia, Opinion polling for the 2026 New Zealand general election (CC BY-SA 4.0). Party positions: see each party's summary in Parties and policies. NZ Business Alliance is non-partisan and does not endorse any party.