How accurate were the polls?
The comparison appears on election night. Going in, the final poll average was National 28.2%, Labour 28.4%, Greens 14.9%, ACT 10.3%, NZ First 10%, Te Pāti Māori 1.2%, Opportunity 6.6%.
These are the final poll averages going into election day. The comparison with the result appears here on election night.
| Party | Final poll average | Result | Polls vs result |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 28.2% | – | – |
| Labour | 28.4% | – | – |
| Greens | 14.9% | – | – |
| ACT | 10.3% | – | – |
| NZ First | 10% | – | – |
| Te Pāti Māori | 1.2% | – | – |
| Opportunity | 6.6% | – | – |
Average of the last 6 polls before election day, 10 October to 26 October. A positive number means the polls had the party higher than it scored.
Why polls miss
Polls measure how people say they will vote on the days they are asked. Late deciders, different turnout between groups, and the small samples behind minor parties all push the result away from the final polls. That is why we compare the average of several polls rather than any one, and why a miss of a point or two is ordinary.
Preliminary results exclude special votes, which in recent elections have favoured the left a little. The comparison here updates when the official result is declared on 27 November 2026.
Questions people ask
How accurate were the polls in the 2026 New Zealand election?
The comparison appears on election night. Going in, the final poll average was National 28.2%, Labour 28.4%, Greens 14.9%, ACT 10.3%, NZ First 10%, Te Pāti Māori 1.2%, Opportunity 6.6%.
What is a normal polling error?
A poll of about 1,000 people has a margin of error of roughly 3 points for a party near 50%, and less for small parties. Misses of 1 to 2 points per party are normal; late swings and turnout differences add to that.
Results: Electoral Commission preliminary and official results. Seats calculated by NZ Business Alliance with the Sainte-Laguë method. Poll data: Wikipedia, Opinion polling for the 2026 New Zealand general election (CC BY-SA 4.0). NZ Business Alliance is non-partisan and does not endorse any party.